Finckh A, Bansback N, Marra CA, Anis AH, Michaud K, Lubin S, White M, Sizto S, Liang MH

BACKGROUND: Long-term control or remission of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) may be possible with very early treatment. However, no optimal first therapeutic strategy has been determined. OBJECTIVE: To assess the potential cost-effectiveness of major therapeutic strategies for very early RA. DESIGN: Decision analytic model with probabilistic sensitivity analyses. DATA SOURCES: Published data, the National Data Bank for Rheumatic Diseases, and actual 2007 hospital costs. TARGET POPULATION: U.S. adults with very early RA (symptom duration <or=3 months). TIME HORIZON: Lifetime. PERSPECTIVE: Health care provider and societal. INTERVENTION: 3 management strategies were compared: a symptomatic or “pyramid” strategy with initial nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, patient education, pain management, and low-dose glucocorticoids, and disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs) at 1 year for nonresponders; early DMARD therapy with methotrexate; and early therapy with biologics and methotrexate. OUTCOME MEASURES: Cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS: By reducing the progression of joint erosions and subsequent functional disability, both early intervention strategies increase quality-adjusted life more than the pyramid strategy and save long-term costs. When the cost of very early intervention is factored in, the cost-effectiveness ratio of the early DMARD strategy is $4849 per QALY (95% CI, $0 to $16 354 per QALY) compared with the pyramid strategy, whereas the benefits gained through the early biologic strategy come at a substantial incremental cost. The early DMARD strategy maximizes the effectiveness of early DMARDs and reserves the use of biologics for patients with more treatment-resistant disease of longer duration, for which the incremental benefit of biologics is greater.Results of Sensitivity Analysis:The early biologic strategy becomes more cost-effective if drug prices are reduced, risk for death is permanently lowered through biologic therapy, patients experience drug-free remission, responders can be selected before therapy initiation, or effective alternative antirheumatic agents are available for patients for whom several biologics have failed. LIMITATIONS: Data on the long-term effect of very early therapeutic interventions on the natural progression in disability and joint erosions are limited. The study considered only tumor necrosis factor inhibitors and not the newer biologics. CONCLUSION: According to the most objective measures of RA progression, very early intervention with conventional DMARDs is cost-effective. The cost-effectiveness of very early intervention with biologics remains uncertain.

Ann Intern Med. 2009 Nov 3;151(9):612-21

Bansback N, Sizto S, Sun H, Feldman S, Willian MK, Anis A

AIMS: To compare the efficacy of psoriasis treatments through a systematic literature review and meta-analysis. METHODS: Randomized controlled trials evaluating the Psoriasis Area and Severity Index (PASI) were identified and assessed for quality. PASI responses were modeled using a mixed-treatment comparison, which enabled the estimation of the relative effectiveness of several treatments. Sensitivity analyses were performed. RESULTS: Twenty-two trials were included. Tumor necrosis factor (TNF) inhibitors were most likely to achieve PASI 75, with a mean relative risk (RR) of 15.57 (95% CI 12.46-19.25) versus mean RRs of 9.24 (95% CI 5.33-13.91) for systemic and 5.65 (95% CI 3.74-7.97) for T-cell therapies. Infliximab (81%) and adalimumab (71%) had greater probabilities of achieving PASI 75 than etanercept (50%). Dosage was an important determinant of outcome. CONCLUSIONS: TNF inhibitors were more effective than T cell agents; adalimumab and infliximab were more effective than systemic therapies and etanercept. Evidence-based comparisons support patient and physician decisions. (c) 2009 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Dermatology. 2009;219(3):209-18

Bansback N, Ara R, Ward S, Anis A, Choi HK

HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors (statins) are potentially excellent candidate agents for patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). They reduce both cardiovascular risks and RA disease activity. To evaluate the potential long-term effects of statin therapy among patients with RA, and to determine their associated cost effectiveness by incorporating both the cardiovascular and the anti-rheumatic benefits. A Markov decision-analytic model was developed to simulate cardiovascular and RA disease profiles over time. The impact of statin therapy was estimated by adjusting the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) events and changes in the RA Disease Activity Score (DAS28), based on the results of a randomized trial. The benefits (QALYs) and costs (in year 2005 values) were evaluated from a US payer perspective. A full uncertainty analysis, including a value-of-information (VOI) analysis, was undertaken to evaluate the importance of individual parameters. Using a 10-year time horizon, the additional cost and QALYs of statin therapy were estimated to be USD4690 and 0.44 QALYs, respectively, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of USD10 650 per QALY (95% CI 1525, 156 565). The QALY gain associated with statin therapy depended more on the anti-rheumatic effects of statin therapy than on its cardiovascular prevention effect. The VOI analysis found the long-term benefit of statin therapy (i.e. >or=12 months) and the consequent impact on quality of life to be the most uncertain and, therefore, influential parameters. Our analysis indicates that the dual anti-inflammatory/cardiovascular benefits of statins could make this therapy highly cost effective in RA. However, uncertainties remain in the available data, warranting further research on refining the precise RA disease-activity benefits and health-utility changes associated with statin therapy, at least over a 12-month period.

Pharmacoeconomics. 2009;27(1):25-37. doi: 10.2165/00019053-200927010-00004

Kopec JA, Sayre EC, Flanagan WM, Fines P, Cibere J, Rahman MM, Bansback NJ, Anis AH, Jordan JM, Sobolev B, Aghajanian J, Kang W, Greidanus NV, Garbuz DS, Hawker GA, Badley EM

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of the study was to develop a population-based simulation model of osteoarthritis (OA) in Canada that can be used to quantify the future health and economic burden of OA under a range of scenarios for changes in the OA risk factors and treatments. In this article we describe the overall structure of the model, sources of data, derivation of key input parameters for the epidemiological component of the model, and preliminary validation studies. DESIGN: We used the Population Health Model (POHEM) platform to develop a stochastic continuous-time microsimulation model of physician-diagnosed OA. Incidence rates were calibrated to agree with administrative data for the province of British Columbia, Canada. The effect of obesity on OA incidence and the impact of OA on health-related quality of life (HRQL) were modeled using Canadian national surveys. RESULTS: Incidence rates of OA in the model increase approximately linearly with age in both sexes between the ages of 50 and 80 and plateau in the very old. In those aged 50+, the rates are substantially higher in women. At baseline, the prevalence of OA is 11.5%, 13.6% in women and 9.3% in men. The OA hazard ratios for obesity are 2.0 in women and 1.7 in men. The effect of OA diagnosis on HRQL, as measured by the Health Utilities Index (HUI3), is to reduce it by 0.10 in women and 0.14 in men. CONCLUSIONS: We describe the development of the first population-based microsimulation model of OA. Strengths of this model include the use of large population databases to derive the key parameters and the application of modern microsimulation technology. Limitations of the model reflect the limitations of administrative and survey data and gaps in the epidemiological and HRQL literature.

Osteoarthritis Cartilage. 2009 Oct 23

Harrison MJ, Davies LM, Bansback NJ, McCoy MJ, Verstappen SM, Watson K, Symmons DP; The British Society for Rheumatology Biologics Register Control Centre Consortium, on behalf of the BSRBR

PURPOSE: Comparative evidence regarding the responsiveness of the EQ-5D and SF-6D in arthritis patients is conflicting and insufficient across the range of disease severity. We examined the comparative responsiveness of the EQ-5D and SF-6D in cohorts of patients with early inflammatory disease through to severe rheumatoid arthritis (RA). METHODS: Responsiveness was tested using the effect size (ES) and standardised response mean (SRM). Correlation of change in EQ-5D and SF-6D with disease specific measures was tested using Pearson correlations and the Steiger’s Z test. Treatment response and self-reported change were used as anchors of important change. RESULTS: The EQ-5D was more responsive to deterioration (ES ratio (EQ-5D/SF-6D): 1.6-3.0) and the SF-6D more responsive to improvement (ES ratio (SF-6D/EQ-5D): 1.1-1.8) in health. The SF-6D did not respond well to deterioration in patients with established severe RA (ES and SRM 0.08). The EQ-5D provided larger absolute mean change estimates but with greater variance compared to the SF-6D. CONCLUSIONS: The comparative responsiveness of the EQ-5D and SF-6D differs according to the direction of change. The level of mean change of the EQ-5D relative to the SF-6D has implications for cost-effectiveness analysis. Use of the SF-6D in patients with severe progressive disease may be inappropriate.

Qual Life Res. 2009 Sep 24

Nosyk B, Sun H, Bansback N, Guh DP, Li X, Barnett P, Bayoumi A, Griffin S, Joyce V, Holodniy M, Owens DK, Anis AH

OBJECTIVES: To assess the concurrent validity and responsiveness of the Health Utility Index 3 (HUI3) in patients with advanced HIV/AIDS, and to determine the responsiveness of this measure, the MOS-HIV and EQ-5D to HIV-related clinical events. METHODS: Data from the OPTIMA (OPTions In Management with Antiretrovirals) trial was analyzed. Two aspects of the validity of the HUI3 were considered: concurrent validity was evaluated using Spearman correlations with MOS-HIV component and summary scores. Responsiveness to AIDS-defining events (ADE) and all adverse events (our external change criterion) was assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves. RESULTS: The study enrolled 368 patients (mean follow-up: 3.66 years); 82% had at least one severe adverse event and 27% had at least one ADE. The HUI3 scale and items showed good concurrent validity, with 85% of the expected relationships with the MOS-HIV subscales verified. The HUI3 was responsive to both adverse events (AUROC [95%CI]: 0.68 [0.57, 0.80]) and ADEs (0.62 [0.51, 0.74]). The EQ-5D was responsive to ADEs (0.66 [0.56, 0.76]), but not responsive to adverse events (0.56 [0.46, 0.68]). CONCLUSION: The HUI3 is a valid and responsive measure of the change in HRQoL associated with clinical events in an advanced HIV/AIDS population.

Qual Life Res. 2009 Sep;18(7):815-24

Harrison MJ, Davies LM, Bansback NJ, McCoy MJ, Farragher TM, Verstappen SM, Hassell A, Symmons DP

OBJECTIVE: Using inflammatory arthritis patients as an example, we investigate EuroQol-5D (EQ-5D) profiles resulting in states worse than death (WTD), and the heath status of patients occupying these states. METHODS: Baseline data from two UK trials were used that reflected the range of arthritis states/severity found in routine practice. EQ-5D profiles resulting in negative valuations (i.e., states WTD) based on UK weights were identified. EQ-5D scores for these profiles from alternative valuation sets, including a reanalysis of the UK weights, were compared. The health status and characteristics of patients, and factors associated with patients in the low distribution of the EQ-5D and those with WTD EQ-5D scores were identified. RESULTS: Seven hundred patients were included in the analysis. Sixty-two (9%) patients occupied states WTD. Patients occupied 9 of the possible 84 health profiles with negative scores (53% occupied one profile); this profile was not rated WTD by any of the alternative EQ-5D scoring algorithms. All WTD profiles included severe pain/discomfort plus moderate problems in >or=3 other domains. Patients with WTD valuations reported higher levels of pain, and feeling downhearted and low on alternative health status measures. CONCLUSIONS: Pain was the predominant factor in the WTD EQ-5D profiles occupied by arthritis patients. Patients occupying states WTD have poorer health-related quality of life than patients in low “better than death” states. Valuations of profiles vary according to how sets of preference weights for health profiles were developed. Further research should explore whether WTD valuations are supported by qualitative evidence and reflect the patient’s health and experience of disease.

Value Health. 2009 Sep;12(6):1026-34

Anis AH, Nosyk B, Sun H, Guh DP, Bansback N, Li X, Barnett PG, Joyce V, Swanson KM, Kyriakides TC, Holodniy M, Cameron DW, Brown ST; OPTIMA Team1

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the relative magnitude and duration of impact of AIDS-defining events (ADEs) and non-AIDS serious adverse events (SAEs) on health-related quality of life (HRQoL) among patients with advanced HIV/AIDS. METHODS: We use data from OPTIMA (OPTions In Management with Antiretrovirals), a multinational, randomized, open, control, clinical management trial of treatment strategies for patients with multidrug-resistant HIV and advanced immune disease. Longitudinal models were used to determine the effects of ADEs and SAEs on HRQoL across periods before, during, and after event onset. The Medical Outcomes Study HIV Health Survey (MOS-HIV) physical and mental health summary scores (MOS-PHS and MOS-MHS), EQ-5D, and the Health Utilities Index Mark 3 HRQoL measures were all assessed at regular follow-up intervals during the trial. RESULTS: ADEs occurred much less frequently than SAEs (n = 147 vs. n = 821) in the study sample population of 368 patients, during median follow-up of 3.96 years. Although both ADEs and SAEs had significant negative impacts on HRQoL, SAEs had at least as large an impact upon HRQoL as ADEs when both were included in a multivariate linear regression model, controlling for other covariates. However, the effect of ADEs on HRQoL was more persistent, with larger magnitude of effect across all instruments in time intervals further from the onset of the event. CONCLUSIONS: Non-AIDS SAEs occurring in patients with late-stage HIV/AIDS seem to have at least as important an immediate impact on patient HRQoL as ADEs; however, the impact of ADEs seems to be more persistent. Our findings call for a greater emphasis on the detection and active prevention of non-AIDS SAEs in patients with late-stage HIV/AIDS.

J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr. 2009 Aug 15;51(5):631-9

Sizto S, Bansback N, Feldman SR, Willian MK, Anis AH

BACKGROUND: New biologics have dramatically changed therapeutic options for psoriasis, albeit at additional cost. OBJECTIVES: To determine the cost-effectiveness and optimal treatment sequence for moderate to severe psoriasis. METHODS: Psoriasis Area and Severity Index (PASI) response rates from 22 randomized controlled trials evaluating biologic (adalimumab, efalizumab, etanercept, infliximab) and nonbiologic systemic (methotrexate, ciclosporin) agents were considered. Short-term efficacy was based on relative probabilities of achieving PASI response (50/75/90) in a meta-analysis of trials. Published evidence and assumptions were used to predict long-term efficacy. Treatment benefits were determined by the relationship between PASI response and the EuroQOL 5D health utility measure. Costs included therapy, administration, monitoring and hospitalization. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated and treatments ranked relative to supportive care. RESULTS: Infliximab provided the most incremental quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) vs. supportive care (0.18 QALYs; 95% confidence interval, CI 0.13-0.24), followed by adalimumab (0.16 QALYs; 95% CI 0.11-0.22). Methotrexate and ciclosporin were less beneficial (0.13 and 0.08 QALYs, respectively) but were cost saving and considered the first two treatments in the optimal sequence. Comparing biologics, adalimumab was most cost effective (ICER pound30 000 per QALY), followed by etanercept ( pound37 000 per QALY), efalizumab ( pound40 000 per QALY) and infliximab ( pound42 000 per QALY). CONCLUSIONS: Methotrexate and ciclosporin are cost effective but require monitoring for toxicities. Of the biologics, adalimumab was most cost effective following conventional systemic treatment failure or inadequate response. Payers and policymakers will have to decide how to utilize their budgets effectively for treating patients with moderate to severe psoriasis.

Br J Dermatol. 2009 Jun;160(6):1264-72

Bansback N, Ara R, Ward S, Anis A, Choi HK.

HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors (statins) are potentially excellent candidate agents for patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). They reduce both cardiovascular risks and RA disease activity. To evaluate the potential long-term effects of statin therapy among patients with RA, and to determine their associated cost effectiveness by incorporating both the cardiovascular and the anti-rheumatic benefits. A Markov decision-analytic model was developed to simulate cardiovascular and RA disease profiles over time. The impact of statin therapy was estimated by adjusting the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) events and changes in the RA Disease Activity Score (DAS28), based on the results of a randomized trial. The benefits (QALYs) and costs (in year 2005 values) were evaluated from a US payer perspective. A full uncertainty analysis, including a value-of-information (VOI) analysis, was undertaken to evaluate the importance of individual parameters. Using a 10-year time horizon, the additional cost and QALYs of statin therapy were estimated to be USD4690 and 0.44 QALYs, respectively, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of USD10 650 per QALY (95% CI 1525, 156 565). The QALY gain associated with statin therapy depended more on the anti-rheumatic effects of statin therapy than on its cardiovascular prevention effect. The VOI analysis found the long-term benefit of statin therapy (i.e. >or=12 months) and the consequent impact on quality of life to be the most uncertain and, therefore, influential parameters. Our analysis indicates that the dual anti-inflammatory/cardiovascular benefits of statins could make this therapy highly cost effective in RA. However, uncertainties remain in the available data, warranting further research on refining the precise RA disease-activity benefits and health-utility changes associated with statin therapy, at least over a 12-month period.

Pharmacoeconomics. 2009;27(1):25-37

Nixon RM, O’Hagan A, Oakley J, Madan J, Stevens JW, Bansback N, Brennan A

The development of a new drug is a major undertaking and it is important to consider carefully the key decisions in the development process. Decisions are made in the presence of uncertainty and outcomes such as the probability of successful drug registration depend on the clinical development programmme.The Rheumatoid Arthritis Drug Development Model was developed to support key decisions for drugs in development for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis. It is configured to simulate Phase 2b and 3 trials based on the efficacy of new drugs at the end of Phase 2a, evidence about the efficacy of existing treatments, and expert opinion regarding key safety criteria.The model evaluates the performance of different development programmes with respect to the duration of disease of the target population, Phase 2b and 3 sample sizes, the dose(s) of the experimental treatment, the choice of comparator, the duration of the Phase 2b clinical trial, the primary efficacy outcome and decision criteria for successfully passing Phases 2b and 3. It uses Bayesian clinical trial simulation to calculate the probability of successful drug registration based on the uncertainty about parameters of interest, thereby providing a more realistic assessment of the likely outcomes of individual trials and sequences of trials for the purpose of decision making.In this case study, the results show that, depending on the trial design, the new treatment has assurances of successful drug registration in the range 0.044-0.142 for an ACR20 outcome and 0.057-0.213 for an ACR50 outcome. Copyright (c) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Pharm Stat. 2009 Apr 1

Nixon RM, Bansback N, Stevens JW, Brennan A, Madan J

A model is presented to generate a distribution for the probability of an ACR response at six months for a new treatment for rheumatoid arthritis given evidence from a one- or three-month clinical trial. The model is based on published evidence from 11 randomized controlled trials on existing treatments. A hierarchical logistic regression model is used to find the relationship between the proportion of patients achieving ACR20 and ACR50 at one and three months and the proportion at six months. The model is assessed by Bayesian predictive P-values that demonstrate that the model fits the data well. The model can be used to predict the number of patients with an ACR response for proposed six-month clinical trials given data from clinical trials of one or three months duration. Copyright 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Pharm Stat. 2009 Apr-Jun;8(2):150-62

Anis AH, Zhang W, Bansback N, Guh DP, Amarsi Z, Birmingham CL

Summary This study is to update the estimates of the economic burden of illness because of overweight and obesity in Canada by incorporating the increase in prevalence of overweight and obesity, findings of new related comorbidities and rise in the national healthcare expenditure. The burden was estimated from a societal perspective using the prevalence-based cost-of-illness methodology. Results from a literature review of the risks of 18 related comorbidities were combined with prevalence of overweight and obesity in Canada to estimate the extent to which each comorbidity is attributable to overweight and obesity. The direct costs were extracted from the National Health Expenditure Database and allocated to each comorbidity using weights principally from the Economic Burden of Illness in Canada. The study showed that the total direct costs attributable to overweight and obesity in Canada were $6.0 billion in 2006, with 66% attributable to obesity. This corresponds to 4.1% of the total health expenditures in Canada in 2006. The inclusion of newly identified comorbidities increased the direct cost estimates of obesity by 25%, while the rise in national healthcare expenditure accounted for a 19% increase. Policies to reduce being overweight and obese could potentially save the Canadian healthcare system millions of dollars.

Obes Rev. 2009 Apr 1.

Guh DP, Zhang W, Bansback N, Amarsi Z, Birmingham CL, Anis AH

BACKGROUND: Overweight and obese persons are at risk of a number of medical conditions which can lead to further morbidity and mortality. The primary objective of this study is to provide an estimate of the incidence of each co-morbidity related to obesity and overweight using a meta-analysis. METHODS: A literature search for the twenty co-morbidities identified in a preliminary search was conducted in Medline and Embase (Jan 2007). Studies meeting the inclusion criteria (prospective cohort studies of sufficient size reporting risk estimate based on the incidence of disease) were extracted. Study-specific unadjusted relative risks (RRs) on the log scale comparing overweight with normal and obese with normal were weighted by the inverse of their corresponding variances to obtain a pooled RR with 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: A total of 89 relevant studies were identified. The review found evidence for 18 co-morbidities which met the inclusion criteria. The meta-analysis determined statistically significant associations for overweight with the incidence of type II diabetes, all cancers except esophageal (female), pancreatic and prostate cancer, all cardiovascular diseases (except congestive heart failure), asthma, gallbladder disease, osteoarthritis and chronic back pain. We noted the strongest association between overweight defined by body mass index (BMI) and the incidence of type II diabetes in females (RR = 3.92 (95% CI: 3.10-4.97)). Statistically significant associations with obesity were found with the incidence of type II diabetes, all cancers except esophageal and prostate cancer, all cardiovascular diseases, asthma, gallbladder disease, osteoarthritis and chronic back pain. Obesity defined by BMI was also most strongly associated with the incidence of type II diabetes in females (12.41 (9.03-17.06)). CONCLUSION: Both overweight and obesity are associated with the incidence of multiple co-morbidities including type II diabetes, cancer and cardiovascular diseases. Maintenance of a healthy weight could be important in the prevention of the large disease burden in the future. Further studies are needed to explore the biological mechanisms that link overweight and obesity with these co-morbidities.

BMC Public Health. 2009 Mar 25;9:88

Bansback N, Marra CA, Finckh A, Anis A

Recent years have witnessed a shift in the therapeutic approach for patients with early rheumatoid arthritis (RA). The focus of interest has been the improved outcomes achieved through the use of early aggressive disease-modifying therapy, including the use of biologic agents. Such strategies have acquisition costs which typically exceed those of older anti-rheumatic strategies. However, improved outcomes might lead to fewer hospitalizations and physician visits and improved employability, leading to future cost savings. This is in addition to the health benefits which patients value as improvements in quality of life. With many services competing to spend often limited health-care budgets, information on the relative benefits and costs of new approaches for treating RA can be useful in deciding on efficient allocation and treatment decisions.

Best Pract Res Clin Rheumatol. 2009 Feb;23(1):83-92

Bansback N, Sun H, Guh DP, Li X, Nosyk B, Griffin S, Barnett PG, Anis AH; OPTIMA TEAM.

The impact of healthcare interventions on health utility values is most frequently measured using a preference-based instrument. Each of the available instruments instructs the respondent to report their health status over different recall periods ranging from the current day to the past month. In an ongoing randomised controlled trial in patients with advanced HIV disease, the impact of using a preference-based instrument with a 1-week recall period vs a 1-day recall period (e.g. today) for capturing recently resolved serious adverse events was measured. The results suggest that the instrument with a 1-week recall period gave lower utility values for recently resolved events in comparison with the instrument with a 1-day recall period. A plausible interpretation of these results is that the recall period was adhered to; for example, patients ignored the impact of recently resolved events in their response if the questionnaire asked them only about their health today. While there are limitations to our study, we believe further consideration should be given to the recall period used for preference-based instruments, and future research should examine other patient groups using a single instrument with multiple recall periods.

Health Econ. 2008 Dec;17(12):1413-9

Bansback N, Sun H, Guh DP, Li X, Nosyk B, Griffin S, Barnett PG, Anis AH; OPTIMA TEAM

The impact of healthcare interventions on health utility values is most frequently measured using a preference-based instrument. Each of the available instruments instructs the respondent to report their health status over different recall periods ranging from the current day to the past month. In an ongoing randomised controlled trial in patients with advanced HIV disease, the impact of using a preference-based instrument with a 1-week recall period vs a 1-day recall period (e.g. today) for capturing recently resolved serious adverse events was measured. The results suggest that the instrument with a 1-week recall period gave lower utility values for recently resolved events in comparison with the instrument with a 1-day recall period. A plausible interpretation of these results is that the recall period was adhered to; for example, patients ignored the impact of recently resolved events in their response if the questionnaire asked them only about their health today. While there are limitations to our study, we believe further consideration should be given to the recall period used for preference-based instruments, and future research should examine other patient groups using a single instrument with multiple recall periods.

Health Econ. 2008 Dec;17(12):1413-9

Bansback N, Ara R, Karnon J, Anis A

We reviewed the clinical measures used in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) economic evaluations with respect to their relevance and sensitivity to changes in survival, health-related quality of life (HR-QOL) and costs. We compared the measures from the economic perspective and discussed the validity of methods used to extrapolate beyond the trial data. Cost-effectiveness evaluations of disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs in RA were identified by searching MEDLINE, EMBASE, Econlit and NHS EED databases. Studies were retained if they extrapolated beyond randomized controlled trial evidence using relationships between clinical measures, costs and utilities. In the 22 studies identified, clinical severity was measured using the Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) Disability Index, the American College of Rheumatology (ACR) response criteria, the Disease Activity Score (DAS) or a combination of the HAQ and DAS. The HAQ is correlated with mortality, costs and HR-QOL instruments, and several studies used linear relationships to model these associations. However, a polynomial relationship or discrete states may be more appropriate for patients at the extremes of the disease spectrum, and numerous HAQ health states may be required to capture differences in mortality risk. While the ACR response criteria is a more comprehensive measure than the HAQ, it is a relative measure, which creates difficulties when estimating absolute changes in HR-QOL, costs and mortality risk. The evidence base linking DAS scores with HR-QOL instruments, costs and mortality is less robust, possibly due to the comparatively recent development of the measure and the limited number of possible scores (mild/moderate/severe). While there is some evidence of a relationship between DAS scores and costs, the DAS does not capture all aspects of HR-QOL, and no significant relationship has been established with mortality risk. Evidence suggests the HAQ to be the primary clinical measure for use in economic evaluations as it is measured in almost all clinical studies, and is closely correlated to health utilities, mortality and costs. While new developments suggest the sensitivity of health states may be improved by combining the HAQ with measures such as the DAS, further research is required in this area. Further research is also required to explore the advantages in using either continuous or discrete health states.

Pharmacoeconomics. 2008;26(5):395-408

Zhang W, Bansback N, Guh D, Li X, Nosyk B, Marra CA, Anis AH

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the shortterm effect of adalimumab on work productivity in patients with moderate to severe active rheumatoid arthritis (RA). METHODS: In a substudy of the Canadian Adalimumab Clinical Trial (CanAct), clinical, health status, and productivity outcomes were measured at baseline and 12 weeks. Patients were classified as responders and nonresponders by the 20% American College of Rheumatology (ACR20) improvement criterion and the minimum clinically important difference (MCID) of the Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) score (0.22), respectively. The Health and Labour Questionnaire (HLQ) was used to measure productivity outcomes and costs. RESULTS: Included in the analysis were 389 patients completing both baseline and 12-week HLQ questionnaire. Absenteeism (a decrease of 0.5 workdays per 2 weeks) and unpaid work productivity (3.5 fewer hours unpaid help per 2 weeks) were improved significantly after 12 weeks. Improvements in productivity outcomes were associated with clinical response. Bootstrapping results suggest that responders achieved statistically significant improvement in presenteeism (ACR20) and unpaid work productivity (ACR20 and HAQ) versus nonresponders. The costs saved by responders were up to $155.04 per 2 weeks more than those by nonresponders. CONCLUSION: The costs of adalimumab were partially offset, even in the short term, by cost savings induced by clinical response among Canadian patients with moderate to severe RA. These findings complement results of other study analyses that demonstrate early and sustained benefits of adalimumab.

J Rheumatol. 2008 Sep;35(9):1729-36

Bansback N, Harrison M, Brazier J, Davies L, Kopec J, Marra C, Symmons D, Anis A.

Arthritis Rheum. 2008 Jul 15;59(7):1018-26

Karnon J, Czoski-Murray C, Smith K, Brand C, Chakravarthy U, Davis S, Bansback N, Beverley C, Bird A, Harding S, Chisholm I, Yang YC.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of screening for age-related macular degeneration (AMD) by developing a decision analytic model that incorporated and assessed all of the National Screening Committee criteria. A further objective was to identify the major areas of uncertainty in the model, and so inform future research priorities in this disease area. DATA SOURCES: Major databases were searched in March 2004 and updated in January 2005. REVIEW METHODS: Systematic literature reviews covered the epidemiology and natural history of AMD, the screening and treatment effectiveness and health-related quality of life relating to AMD. A hybrid cohort-individual sampling model was implemented to describe the range of pathways between the incidence of age-related maculopathy (ARM) and death via clinical presentation and treatment at different stages of the disease. As significant shortfalls in the data available from the literature were apparent, so a range of primary data sources were also used to populate the model. To obtain estimates for the value of parameters deemed to be within an expert’s remit, data describing some parameters were elicited from relevant experts. The data identified informed probability distributions describing the uncertainty around the model parameters. To incorporate joint parameter uncertainty (i.e. correlations between parameters), the AMD natural history model was calibrated probabilistically. Randomly sampled sets of input parameters were assigned weights representing the accuracy of their predictions of a set of observed model outputs. The analysis of the AMD screening model estimated the costs, numbers of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and cases of blindness in a general population sample of 50-year-olds over the remainder of their lifetime, for 16 alternative screening options (including no screening). The reference case analysis incorporated current treatment options of laser photocoagulation and photodynamic therapy. Sensitivity analyses describing six alternative sets of intervention strategies, based on horizon scanning of potential future treatments for AMD, were also undertaken. RESULTS: There remains significant uncertainty about whether any form of screening for AMD is cost-effective. However, annual screening from age 60 years seems to provide the highest mean net benefits, but this is based on a cost-effectiveness estimate that has very poor precision (high levels of uncertainty). The probabilistic sensitivity analysis shows that the 95% credible interval for annual screening from age 60 years ranges from this option dominating the previous option to an incremental cost per QALY of over 0.5 million pounds sterling. Plotting a cost-effectiveness acceptability frontier shows that although annual screening from age 60 years has the highest net benefits at a value of QALY of 30,000 pounds sterling, the associated probability of this option being the most cost-effective option is only around 20%. The sensitivity analyses around potential future treatment options indicate that screening may become more cost-effective with the new treatments. CONCLUSIONS: The conclusions focus on the interpretation of the results from the perspective of defining the major areas of uncertainty, which were defined as disease progression, rates of clinical presentation, screening test and optician effectiveness, treatment effectiveness, and costs of blindness. Future research may be best targeted at assessing how routine data may be used to describe clinical presentation rates of ARM. Other potential studies include a pilot study of the effectiveness of screening and opticians’ referral patterns for AMD and a costing study of blindness as a continuum of association with deterioration in vision.

Health Technol Assess. 2008 Jun;12(27):iii-iv, ix-124

Karnon J, Czoski-Murray C, Smith K, Brand C, Chakravarthy U, Davis S, Bansback N, Beverley C, Bird A, Harding S, Chisholm I, Yang YC

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of screening for age-related macular degeneration (AMD) by developing a decision analytic model that incorporated and assessed all of the National Screening Committee criteria. A further objective was to identify the major areas of uncertainty in the model, and so inform future research priorities in this disease area. DATA SOURCES: Major databases were searched in March 2004 and updated in January 2005. REVIEW METHODS: Systematic literature reviews covered the epidemiology and natural history of AMD, the screening and treatment effectiveness and health-related quality of life relating to AMD. A hybrid cohort-individual sampling model was implemented to describe the range of pathways between the incidence of age-related maculopathy (ARM) and death via clinical presentation and treatment at different stages of the disease. As significant shortfalls in the data available from the literature were apparent, so a range of primary data sources were also used to populate the model. To obtain estimates for the value of parameters deemed to be within an expert’s remit, data describing some parameters were elicited from relevant experts. The data identified informed probability distributions describing the uncertainty around the model parameters. To incorporate joint parameter uncertainty (i.e. correlations between parameters), the AMD natural history model was calibrated probabilistically. Randomly sampled sets of input parameters were assigned weights representing the accuracy of their predictions of a set of observed model outputs. The analysis of the AMD screening model estimated the costs, numbers of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and cases of blindness in a general population sample of 50-year-olds over the remainder of their lifetime, for 16 alternative screening options (including no screening). The reference case analysis incorporated current treatment options of laser photocoagulation and photodynamic therapy. Sensitivity analyses describing six alternative sets of intervention strategies, based on horizon scanning of potential future treatments for AMD, were also undertaken. RESULTS: There remains significant uncertainty about whether any form of screening for AMD is cost-effective. However, annual screening from age 60 years seems to provide the highest mean net benefits, but this is based on a cost-effectiveness estimate that has very poor precision (high levels of uncertainty). The probabilistic sensitivity analysis shows that the 95% credible interval for annual screening from age 60 years ranges from this option dominating the previous option to an incremental cost per QALY of over 0.5 million pounds sterling. Plotting a cost-effectiveness acceptability frontier shows that although annual screening from age 60 years has the highest net benefits at a value of QALY of 30,000 pounds sterling, the associated probability of this option being the most cost-effective option is only around 20%. The sensitivity analyses around potential future treatment options indicate that screening may become more cost-effective with the new treatments. CONCLUSIONS: The conclusions focus on the interpretation of the results from the perspective of defining the major areas of uncertainty, which were defined as disease progression, rates of clinical presentation, screening test and optician effectiveness, treatment effectiveness, and costs of blindness. Future research may be best targeted at assessing how routine data may be used to describe clinical presentation rates of ARM. Other potential studies include a pilot study of the effectiveness of screening and opticians’ referral patterns for AMD and a costing study of blindness as a continuum of association with deterioration in vision.

Health Technol Assess. 2008 Jun;12(27):iii-iv, ix-124

Wailoo AJ, Bansback N, Brennan A, Michaud K, Nixon RM, Wolfe F

OBJECTIVE: Since the introduction of the Medicare Prescription Drug Improvement and Modernization Act and its associated demonstration project, coverage of selected biologic drugs has been expanded for Medicare beneficiaries. For rheumatoid arthritis, coverage was extended to etanercept, adalimumab, and anakinra in addition to the previously covered infliximab. We undertook to develop a model to compare the costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) generated by each of the 4 biologic agents. METHODS: Data were drawn from meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials and from a large longitudinal outcomes databank. Uncertainty was addressed using probabilistic and one-way sensitivity analyses. A lifetime horizon and Medicare viewpoint were adopted. RESULTS: In the base case analysis, anakinra was the least effective and least costly strategy. Etanercept, adalimumab, and infliximab were similar in terms of effectiveness, but infliximab was more costly. If decision makers are willing to pay a maximum of $50,000/QALY, the probability that infliximab is cost-effective is <1%. Findings were robust to a range of sensitivity analyses. Only if the dose of infliximab remains constant over time is this likely to be a cost-effective strategy. CONCLUSION: Infliximab is unlikely to be cost-effective in the Medicare population compared with either etanercept or adalimumab. Anakinra is substantially less costly but is also less effective than the 3 tumor necrosis factor alpha inhibitors.

Arthritis Rheum. 2008 Apr;58(4):939-46

Harrison MJ, Davies LM, Bansback NJ, Ingram M, Anis AH, Symmons DP

OBJECTIVE: Cost-utility analysis is increasingly important as healthcare providers aim to invest scarce resources in interventions offering the greatest health benefit. The ability to attach utility values to health states is essential, and is increasingly performed using generic scales. However, the evidence regarding the validity of generic utility scales in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is unclear. We summarize and review evidence on the validity and comparative performance of generic utility scales in RA. METHODS: We searched the English-language medical literature for studies using utilities in RA between 1980 and mid-2006. Reports describing primary evidence of the validity or performance of a generic utility scale in RA were selected, summarized, and reviewed using the OMERACT filter. RESULTS: In total 923 articles were identified, of which 228 reported the use of utility scales in RA; 26 studies related to the validation or evidence of generic utility scales in RA, the EQ-5D, Health Utility Index-2 (HUI2) and HUI3, SF-6D, and Quality of Well-Being Scale. The EQ-5D, HUI2 and HUI3, and SF-6D all have consistent evidence of construct validity and responsiveness in RA, but each has limitations. CONCLUSION:The EQ-5D and HUI3 have been the most extensively studied instruments and show validity and responsiveness for use in RA, but both instruments have limitations. The SF-6D is relatively new and appears to have potential for use in milder RA, but needs further evaluation. More longitudinal head-to-head evaluation of measures is needed across the spectrum of RA disease severity to further investigate their comparative properties, and to seek consensus on the best utility measure for use in economic evaluation.

J Rheumatol. 2008 Apr;35(4):592-602

Wailoo A, Bansback N, Chilcott J

Rheumatology (Oxford). 2008 Feb;47(2):119-20

Bansback N, Davis S, Brazier J

AIMS: To re-evaluate the cost-effectiveness of photodynamic therapy with verteporfin (Visudyne, Novartis AG, Switzerland) in patients with predominantly classic and classic choroidal neovascularization (CNV) owing to age-related macular degeneration (AMD), using new evidence on the impact of contrast sensitivity on health status. METHOD: A health economic model is used to synthesise the evidence on contrast sensitivity and treatment rates from the TAP Investigation with health state utilities and costs. Impairment of visual function is estimated using a Markov model to predict transitions between states of contrast sensitivity. Each state is associated with costs and a health state utility. Total expected costs and benefits for a cohort of patients over a defined number of cycles are calculated. The expected health state utility for each disease state was estimated using results from a study of 209 patients with AMD in Sheffield. The model includes the costs associated with treatment and monitoring in the verteporfin treatment arm and costs offset by delaying the deterioration of visual function. RESULTS: Beyond 3 years, the annual costs of the verteporfin arm are estimated to be less than the annual costs of the control arm, owing to the cost associated with higher blindness prevalence in the control arm. Over time, the results show that both the incremental utility and cost decreases. By 10 years, the estimated incremental cost-effectiveness is approximately pound20 996 per Quality-Adjusted Life Years. CONCLUSION: The results of this study suggest that the verteporfin therapy in the treatment for patients with predominantly classic and classic CNV owing to AMD is encouraging.

Eye (Lond). 2007 Dec;21(12):1455-63

Bansback N, Marra C, Tsuchiya A, Anis A, Guh D, Hammond T, Brazier J

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the relationship between preference-based measures, EuroQol (EQ-5D) and SF-6D, and the Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) disability index (DI) in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA), and to characterize components that are predictors of health utility. METHODS: Patients with RA participating in 2 studies in the UK (n = 151) and Canada (n = 319) completed the HAQ, EQ-5D, and Short Form 36 (SF-36). The SF-36, a generic measure of quality of life, was converted into the preference-based SF-6D. From these results we developed models of the relationship between the HAQ and SF-6D and EQ-5D using various regression analyses. RESULTS: The optimal model developed for the EQ-5D entered levels for each item as independent variables (model 5). A root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.18 suggested relatively good predictive ability. For the SF-6D, RMSEs were lower (0.09), suggesting better predictions than for the EQ-5D, but models with more explanatory variables did not improve results (model 2 or 4 optimal). The models were able to predict actual SF-6D and EQ-5D across the range of the HAQ DI. CONCLUSION: Our approach enabled calculations of quality-adjusted life years from existing trials where only the HAQ was measured. All aspects of the HAQ may not be reflected in the preference-based measures, and this method is suboptimal to direct measurement of health state utility in clinical trials. Given this limitation, our approach provides an alternative for researchers who need health-state utility values, but had not included a preference-based measure in their clinical study because of resource constraints or a desire to limit patient burden.

Arthritis Rheum. 2007 Aug 15;57(6):963-71

Brennan A, Bansback N, Nixon R, Madan J, Harrison M, Watson K, Symmons D

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the cost effectiveness of TNF-alpha antagonist therapies for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in the United Kingdom using data from the British Society for Rheumatology Biologics Registry (BSRBR). METHODS: A simulation model is constructed to quantify the cost effectiveness of the TNF-alpha antagonist therapies (infliximab, etanercept and adalimumab) as a group versus traditional disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs, with a time horizon over the full patient lifetime. Participants are UK NHS patients in the BSRBR with RA who have failed at least two traditional disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs. The BSRBR aims to recruit all RA patients starting on a TNF-alpha antagonist agent and follows them 6 monthly via consultant and patient administered questionnaires. Data collected include disease activity scores (DAS28), the Health Assessment Questionnaire and the SF-36. Costs include drug, monitoring and hospitalisations. Benefits are measured in disability and quality of life improvements. The main outcome measure is the incremental cost per quality adjusted life-year gained (discounted). RESULTS: The basecase cost per quality adjusted life-year gained by using TNF-alpha antagonist therapies is estimated at pound23 882, with probabilistic uncertainty analysis suggesting that the probability that treatments are below 30,000 pounds per QALY is around 84%. The results are most sensitive to assumptions concerning long-term disability progression, discount rates and the validity or otherwise of SF6D derived utility measures. Subgroup analysis, monotherapy versus combination with methotrexate, and a limited analysis of sequential therapy with two TNF-alpha antagonist agents, suggest cost-effectiveness ratios around 20,000 pounds to 30,000 pounds. CONCLUSIONS: The BSRBR data provide valuable evidence for estimating cost-effectiveness. The analysis concludes that current policies and practice for the use of TNF-alpha antagonist therapies, after RA patients have failed at least two traditional disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs, appear cost-effective in the context of the NICE re-appraisal of 2006 for England and Wales, thus supporting their decision to continue their reimbursement. Decision-makers worldwide might adapt this analysis because differential costs, discount rates and other factors could affect results. There remains uncertainty, particularly on long-term disease progression. Further data collection using the BSRBR is recommended, together with a revision to this analysis when data become available.

Rheumatology (Oxford). 2007 Aug;46(8):1345-54

Nixon R, Bansback N, Brennan A

OBJECTIVE: New treatments that inhibit the cytokines tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNFalpha) and interleukin 1 (IL-1) in the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis have proven clinical effect against placebo and methotrexate (MTX) in several clinical trials in early and late-stage disease and different severity groups. Since there are no head-to-head randomized controlled trials directly comparing the currently available treatments, etanercept, adalimumab, infliximab or anakinra, we perform a meta-analysis that adjusts for differences between study characteristics, and allows indirect comparisons between treatments. METHODS: Thirteen trials of cytokine antagonists were included from a systematic review of the literature. They reported the primary outcome of American College of Rheumatology (ACR) response criteria at 6 months or beyond. Meta-analytical methods are used to quantify relative treatment effects, using the log odds ratio of an ACR20 or ACR50 response at 6 months, whilst adjusting for study-level variables. RESULTS: In each of the trials, cytokine treatment was efficacious in comparison with placebo or MTX. For each treatment, the inclusion of MTX in combination improved the response. After adjustment for study-level variables, we found TNFalpha antagonists to be more efficacious compared with anakinra (P < 0.05). Indirect comparisons between the three TNFalpha antagonists indicated no difference in efficacy. Sensitivity analysis using a different statistical model structure confirmed these results. CONCLUSION: When the outcome of interest is the probability of an ACR20 or ACR50 response at 6 months we found: (i) treatment with the IL-1 antagonist anakinra is better than placebo; (ii) for each treatment, the use of combination MTX improves the probability of response; (iii) treatment with any of the TNFalpha antagonists is better than with the IL-1 antagonist anakinra; and (iv) all drugs in the TNFalpha antagonist class are no different from each other.

Rheumatology (Oxford). 2007 Jul;46(7):1140-7

Bansback N, Maetzel A, Drummond M, Anis A, Marra C, Conway P, Boers M, Tugwell P, Boonen A

Since healthcare resources are scarce, choices have to be made on how they will be allocated. The use of economic evaluations using cost-effectiveness analyses has increased rapidly as policymakers have realized their value in maximizing the population’s benefits (in terms of length of life and health status) within a given budget. Following efforts by OMERACT to create reference case definitions for the conduct of economic evaluation in rheumatoid arthritis, osteoporosis, and osteoarthritis, we review various methodological areas and research decisions that could benefit from a consensus between researchers, clinicians, and drug developers in terms of an ankylosing spondylitis (AS) reference case. Ten methodological issues are presented that will be important for future development of evaluations. Tentative proposals to define the issues in a reference case for AS are made, along with recommendations for further research.

J Rheumatol. 2007 May;34(5):1178-83