Thomas KC, Nosyk B, Fisher CG, Dvorak M, Patchell RA, Regine WF, Loblaw A, Bansback N, Guh D, Sun H, Anis A

PURPOSE: A recent randomized clinical trial has demonstrated that direct decompressive surgery plus radiotherapy was superior to radiotherapy alone for the treatment of metastatic epidural spinal cord compression. The current study compared the cost-effectiveness of the two approaches. METHODS AND MATERIALS: In the original clinical trial, clinical effectiveness was measured by ambulation and survival time until death. In this study, an incremental cost-effectiveness analysis was performed from a societal perspective. Costs related to treatment and posttreatment care were estimated and extended to the lifetime of the cohort. Weibull regression was applied to extrapolate outcomes in the presence of censored clinical effectiveness data. RESULTS: From a societal perspective, the baseline incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was found to be $60 per additional day of ambulation (all costs in 2003 Canadian dollars). Using probabilistic sensitivity analysis, 50% of all generated ICERs were lower than $57, and 95% were lower than $242 per additional day of ambulation. This analysis had a 95% CI of -$72.74 to 309.44, meaning that this intervention ranged from a financial savings of $72.74 to a cost of $309.44 per additional day of ambulation. Using survival as the measure of effectiveness resulted in an ICER of $30,940 per life-year gained. CONCLUSIONS: We found strong evidence that treatment of metastatic epidural spinal cord compression with surgery in addition to radiotherapy is cost-effective both in terms of cost per additional day of ambulation, and cost per life-year gained.

Int J Radiat Oncol Biol Phys. 2006 Nov 15;66(4):1212-8

Bansback NJ, Ara R, Barkham N, Brennan A, Fraser AD, Conway P, Reynolds A, Emery P

OBJECTIVES: Tumour necrosis factor (TNF) has been shown to improve the outcomes in patients with psoriatic arthritis (PsA). We estimate the long-term impact on health status of prescribing the TNF antagonist etanercept, and evaluate the cost-effectiveness in a health economic model. METHODS: The relationship between disability (Health Assessment Questionnaire) and health state utility was explored to estimate the quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained from the TNF antagonist etanercept. A model was then used to compare sequences of treatments for PsA after failure of two conventional disease modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (DMARDs). One arm commences on etanercept therapy and this is compared with a strategy commencing with combination therapy of methotrexate and ciclosporin and another commencing with leflunomide. Individual patient data from Phase III etanercept trials is used to populate the model supported by published evidence from extensive literature searches. By incorporating a life table specific for a PsA population, and using a number of evidence- and expert opinion-based assumptions for disease progression, the model was extended beyond the trial duration to a 10-yr time horizon. Cost offsets were produced by avoiding surgery through delayed progression; drug and monitoring costs were also modelled. RESULTS: Over the 10 yrs, modelled etanercept treatment gave 0.82 more QALYs when compared with combination therapy with methotrexate and ciclosporin, and 0.65 more QALYs in comparison with leflunomide. This equates to a central estimate for the cost per QALY of pound28 189 and pound28 189 for ciclosporin and leflunomide, respectively. Sensitivity analyses demonstrated this could vary by as much as +/-28%. CONCLUSIONS: With limited data currently available, the potential cost-effectiveness of etanercept in DMARD failures for adults with PsA appears encouraging. The result for other TNF antagonists will depend on how their relative efficacy and drug price compares with etanercept. A number of limitations are described and priorities for further research suggested.

Rheumatology (Oxford). 2006 Aug;45(8):1029-38

Bansback N, Young A, Brennan A, Dixey J

OBJECTIVE: To construct a prognostic algorithm to predict 5-year functional outcome in rheumatoid arthritis (RA), based on the Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ). METHODS: Data from all patients with 5-year followup (n = 985) were used from an inception cohort, the Early Rheumatoid Arthritis Study (ERAS). Possibly relevant prognostic factors considered in the initial stage of the model-building process were standard clinical, radiological, and laboratory features measured at baseline and at 1 year. Multivariate analysis was performed using logistic regression, and the predictive performance of the model was tested using measures of discrimination and calibration. RESULTS: Bootstrap resampling identified 6 variables that consistently predicted severe functional outcome. Functional grade III/IV (odds ratio 6.7) and HAQ at 1 year (odds ratio 2.4) were the most important. Other variables included socioeconomic status, hemoglobin, and radiographic and disease activity scores. Estimates of the regression coefficients and performance were corrected for over-fitting. Reasonably large values for the c-index (0.82) and the Nagelkerke R(2) (0.39) indicate that the set of prognostic factors explains the variation in outcome to a degree that implies good prediction for individual patients. CONCLUSION: The algorithm identifies patients in the first year of RA who are likely to have poor function by 5 years and who could potentially benefit from aggressive drug therapy. A nomogram is produced for simple application of the model in clinical practice. While further external validation is necessary, this model could allow clinicians to target aggressive therapy earlier in a patient’s disease course.

J Rheumatol. 2006 Aug;33(8):1503-10